America's Closing Window
About 200 years ago, America was created as a haven for people persecuted in Europe.
The founding fathers tried to anticipate the problems that might develop and they codified a morality that they thought would protect the new country. They explicitly warned against getting entangled in foreign wars. They warned against the inertia that accompanies success ("The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants").
Despite their best efforts, it was not long before Americans were drunk with the wealth of their new land and sought more plunder.
Now, 2012, we find a country at the edge. Numerous serious problems are understated or ignored. The reflex is to minimize problems by controlling everything. We have a banking system that controls interest rates, keeping them at absurd unnaturally low levels without knowing what the consequences of that might be. We have the largest and most expensive internal security apparatus in history, police to monitor any conceivable threat. Citizens are imprisoned at a rate without parallel among modern democracies. Large lumbering agencies have been created to regulate everything from food and medicine to educational licenses to animals and buildings.
Perhaps worst of all, America's neighbors around the world are anticipating our collapse. Where once we were widely perceived as the cutting edge of personal freedom now we are seen as a bullying imperial monster. We have military bases in dozens of countries, and in each case there are sizable numbers of locals who want us out. We are the rich buffoon who throws money out the window of his car when there is a problem.
So what is the answer?
Solving the problem requires combining several trends and noticing historical realities.
There is a Bedouin saying "I against my brother, my brothers and I against my cousins, then my cousins and I against strangers". It points to both the problem and the solution.
1) Human beings always are in search of new space. There has never been a society that thrived on farming for long. If one group sees wisdom in a pacific life its neighbors eventually will consume it. Small exceptions exist only in the presence of bigger threats. That means the primary motive directing civilizations will always be a new physical space to leave for the next generation. The local argument may be for resources or defense or whatever, but physical space is the underlying issue.
2) Grand ideas like the United Nations are only successful when there is an overriding tension that keeps the ambitions of individual "leaders" in check. The progression generally is as follows (repeated again and again, generation after generation). a) Two societies clash and both pay a heavy price. b) Senior leaders in each society realize the price of conflict exceeds its benefit for both sides. c) They formulate a treaty arrangement to ensure that future leaders will respect the peace. d) After a time the newer leaders again become consumed with smaller issues and begin to minimize the value of previous wisdom. e) The new focus is on short term gain again, success of one society over the other.
Two necessary elements of a solution are:
a) Universal protection of individual rights. Humanity will not escape the cycles of war until human rights are codified and enforced worldwide. Unfortunately, there is no country with both the moral standing and the political will to lead such an effort. Every country on the planet calls itself a bastion of liberty and democracy, each in their own way, but none is. When this step is taken, the rights will be complete and unqualified. Freedom of speech, for example, means freedom of speech. It doesn't mean "you can say anything except a,b or c".
b) A global focus away from the fight for limited resources. The only realistic solution here would be a focus on outer space. If all countries had some stake in rapid development of colonies on other planets, etc, local psychological pressure toward war would be greatly reduced. The short term and long term benefits of a vast international space effort are incalculable. The big problem, of course is politics. The U.S. did a very poor job of managing its space effort, using it largely as a political toy. Other countries did no better.
With a huge investment just in these two areas, universal rights and space colonization, the United States could work its way back into a position of leadership.
Is it likely to happen soon? No.
America's current focus is primarily domestic security and playing three card monte with the economy. Other countries, for the most part, are maneuvering to profit from the decline in America and Europe.
The shift in focus from military to space will happen, but unfortunately there is no leadership in America now that will take the first steps.
