The War
By now it seems pretty clear that there will be a major war soon in the Middle East that will eventually involve Asian and European powers. This page will try to clarify the motives of the various players / blocs, and speculate about likely outcomes.
February 19th, 2012. Chance of war within 2 weeks at least 50%.
The root of this developing war is Israel's realization that it does not have reliable defenses against predictable threats, going forward. It's only hope is to see a regional war that reduces the strength of its enemies. From a strategic point of view, it is obvious to any observer, anywhere, that Israel's strategy is deeply flawed. Nevertheless the psychological climate among Israel's leaders allows this approach.
A parallel root is the desire of the Muslim bloc (led politically by Saudi Arabia, militarily by Pakistan) to see Jerusalem under Muslim control.
Important background. There has almost always been significant high level cooperation among countries, even enemies, in modern times. The only exception arises when a countries national leaders do not have firm control of their own policy. So, for example, high level visits have been made, whether publicly or secretly, by Israel to its major enemies at regular intervals, and those visits are genuinely cordial.
In a conflict the great advantage always goes to the one with greater awareness of the situation and to the one that must take a shorter step from peace to war. So, if a country must make a protracted run up to war, it gives itself a disadvantage. In that sense the advantage is always with the one attacked and against the attacker. In this case the reference is to the fact that the bloc that is being attacked has an overwhelming advantage. The bloc that is attacking, i.e., Israel, America and any others, have a seeming advantage in terms of weaponry but a significant disadvantage in every single other arena of the conflict.
How the war is likely to develop.It seems pretty likely that a small scale strike on Iran will be the superficial start of the conflict. Once that strike happens there will be occasional periods of calm, lasting perhaps weeks, but the threshold will have been crossed and the conflict will not actually end until the new status quo is defined.
Following the strike on Iran, Saudi Arabia and its allies will have less reason to be assisting toward the United States. A neutral or even anti West stance by countries like Saudi Arabia will strengthen their regimes against "Arab Spring" pressures as well as furthering various religious objectives. In other words, the flow of oil from gulf states will slow considerably once the first step in conflict has been taken. The obvious result will be more serious economic pressure in the U.S. and Europe.
Militarily, there is no doubt that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are the single greatest, and most likely, threat to America. Pakistan's small nuclear weapons are almost certain to be used at some point, and the most likely targets will be American and British, for historical reasons. In a conflict like this, with religious undertones, it is attractive for the underdog to use visible symbols in their attack, for example targeting the World Trade Center in 9/11. In this case that taste for symbolism would suggest that the first major shot at America will come not from the east (i.e. toward N.Y. or D.C.) but from the west (i.e., toward California).
